China could invade Taiwan within the next 18 months, current and former officials familiar with U.S. and allied intelligence told Fox News, suggesting a particularly "dangerous" window between the meeting of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party this November and the next U.S. presidential election in 2024.

Two former senior officials told Fox News that the intelligence suggests China sees the potential opportunity for an amphibious assault and military invasion of Taiwan in that time frame.

"We have always had and always been aware that China has an ever-present, ever-evolving plan for an amphibious assault and military invasion of Taiwan. If they are not successful in reunifying politically, then they will do so with force," one former senior intelligence official familiar with U.S. intelligence, and who has discussed intelligence belonging to a U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific, told Fox News.

"What is different now is, we have intelligence that this has gone from an indefinite, nebulous scenario, to a belief that there is a window of opportunity in the next 18 months," the official continued. "I don’t think that’s a coincidence that window of opportunity is within a Biden administration."

A former senior Trump administration official told Fox News House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is being used as a "pretext" for increased Chinese aggression around Taiwan, but said it is "not the real cause of it," and warned that the "Davidson Window" is "closing."

Former commander of American forces in the Indo-Pacific Adm. Philip Davison testified last year that China could invade Taiwan within the next six years—by 2027.

"The window is now between the Party Congress and the next U.S. presidential election," the official said noting that window could close by January 2025—at the end of the presidential transition period. "I think we are in a very dangerous two-year window right now."

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is expected to take place in November, where Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected.

A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council told Fox News that the United States "will not seek and does not want a crisis."

"We are prepared to manage what Beijing chooses to do. We will not engage in saber-rattling, and we're not looking to escalate," the NSC spokesperson told Fox News. "At the same time, we're going to be steady and resolute. We will not be deterred from operating in the seas and skies of the Western Pacific as we have done for decades."

The spokesperson added that the United States "will continue to support Taiwan, consistent with our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, and defend a free and open Indo-Pacific."

"We're communicating closely with our allies and partners. And we are maintaining open lines of communication Beijing," the spokesperson said. "We will keep doing what we are doing -- supporting cross-Strait peace and stability."

However, the former senior Trump administration official told Fox News that "the likelihood of invasion has increased dramatically with China perceiving the United States is in a weakened position," pointing to the Biden administration’s "surrender" of Afghanistan to the Taliban in August 2021 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which resulted "in only half-measure sanctions being put on the Russian Federation."

The official also said Xi has been emboldened by U.S. "domestic problems," including crime in cities across the nation, "the lack of control" at the Southern border, and the "failures" of the Biden administration’s energy policy.

The official stressed that the invasion could happen before the inauguration of the next president in 2025, saying China fears the election of "another leader that could return to a more robust, ‘peace through strength’ foreign policy and stronger domestic policies."

With regard to criticisms of the current administration's foreign policy and its withdrawal from Afghanistan, a Biden administration official told Fox News that China "would love nothing more than for the U.S. government to still be bogged down in a 20-year war, still committing billions of dollars, U.S. troops, and have our military focused on another country's civil war.

"By being able to withdraw our forces from Afghanistan, we have been able to reposition them and refocus our efforts to other areas of the world," the official said. The official added that the Biden administration "freed up resources" and said leaving Afghanistan put the United States "in a much better position on the geopolitical stage when it comes to our strategic competition with China or with any other important issues around the world."

However, during an interview with Fox News Wednesday, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Heino Klinck said the United States "has failed to deter adversaries within the last 18 months."

"If anything, the United States has been deterred from forcefully supporting its partners and allies worldwide," Klinck said, adding that he has viewed 2024 as a "particularly dangerous year."

"The reason is because it is not only the election in the United States, but it is also the presidential election in Taiwan," Klinck said, stressing that he believes the People’s Liberation Army "will move against Taiwan when the Chinese Communist Party tells it to, regardless of timing."

"I view 2024 as being dangerous because I believe the CCP, particularly President Xi Jinping, will see it as a potential window of opportunity because of the U.S. election, and the fact that he probably perceives that the United States is going to shy away from an international crisis during a presidential election," he told Fox News.

A lot more at https://www.foxnews.com/politics/china-could-invade-taiwan-within-next-18-months-before-next-us-presidential-election-sources